Tony Blair's legacy 20 years on

 

It is 20 years to the day that Tony Blair won a landslide general election victory for Labour - how did he change the country and what is left of his legacy?

"A new dawn has broken, has it not?"

With these words, spoken to a cheering crowd of supporters as the sun rose over London's South Bank, Tony Blair ushered in the first Labour government in 18 years.

It was a typically snappy Blair phrase, yet also slightly hesitant, as if he could not quite believe what he had just done.

Blair was, by all accounts, a nervy companion on election night, refusing to believe he was on course to a stunning victory even as it was becoming obvious to all around him.

He did not share the euphoric mood of supporters. "I was scared," he later wrote in his memoirs.

It was a Labour landslide of historic proportions, handing Blair a Commons majority of 179, although the collapse in the Tory vote made it appear more dramatic. John Major's Conservatives had won more votes in 1992 - 14,093,007 - than Blair's 1997 total of 13,518,167.

But none of that mattered to the ecstatic crowd at the Royal Festival Hall, as Blair sketched out, in vague but confident terms, his vision of a modern, united country fit for a new millennium. A country for the "many not the few".

It is striking now to hear how much of his eight-minute speech was directed at the party's old guard.

"We have been elected as New Labour and we will govern as New Labour," he told his audience, as a warning shot across the bows of those who had opposed his "modernisation" of the party every step of the way.

 

 

The country

Blair came to power at a time of almost giddy optimism, in contrast with what was to come. The end of the Cold War and booming economies in the West, driven by advances in technology, created a brief window where peace, stability and rising living standards looked like they might become the norm.

Britain was in the middle of a pop culture revival, built around swaggering self-confidence and semi-ironic celebrations of Britishness. The Union Jack was back - on Noel Gallagher's guitar and Geri Halliwell's mini dress at that year's Brit awards.

The Cross of St George had also been rehabilitated, as a new breed of middle class football fan cheered England to the semi-finals of the Euro 96 tournament.

Blair rode the "Cool Britannia" wave for all it was worth. At 43, the former lead singer of Ugly Rumours - his student band - badly wanted to be seen as the first rock and roll prime minister.

And for the briefest of moments, it seemed to work, as he played host to the stars of Britain's "creative industries" at a Downing Street reception weeks after taking office.

 

 

The Cabinet

The voting public might have bought into New Labour's blend of Thatcherite free market economics and social justice, but it never had very deep roots in the Labour Party itself.

It was the product of a tight-knit group headed by Blair, Gordon Brown, Peter Mandelson and media chief Alastair Campbell.

Blair's first cabinet was a mix of old and new Labour figures (although the hard left was banished to the wilderness).

"Traditional values in a modern setting", as John Prescott, a man who straddled the new/old divide with more agility than he was often given credit for, would say with a knowing smirk.

They were a diverse bunch - with more women than had ever sat in a British cabinet before and the first openly gay cabinet minister, Chris Smith.

There were some big hitters, such as Robin Cook at the Foreign Office and Jack Straw at the Home Office, even though very few - including Blair himself - had ever sat behind a ministerial desk before.

And it quickly became clear that only Blair and Chancellor Gordon Brown really mattered when it came to the big decisions. But rather like Oasis's Gallagher brothers, their successes were quickly followed by growing stories about their rivalry.

But despite their increasingly fractious relationship - the TBGBs as they became known - there was no official split as they dominated Britain's political landscape for the next decade.

Ministers seemed to come and go with dizzying speed, as the cabinet reshuffle became Blair's signature move, but the Blair/Brown axis somehow stayed in place.

Twenty years on and only three MPs - Harriet Harman, Margaret Beckett and Nick Brown - from that first Cabinet line-up are still in the Commons.

Mo Mowlam, Donald Dewar and Robin Cook are no longer with us. Most of the rest, including the now Lord Prescott, Alistair Darling and David Blunkett, have taken up seats in the House of Lords.

Did they achieve what they set out to do?

The policies

The Blair government came to power on the back of relatively modest proposals on a pledge card brandished relentlessly through the 1997 election campaign. They were cutting class sizes, "fast track" punishment for young offenders, cutting NHS waiting lists, getting 250,000 under-25-year-olds "off benefit and into work" and "no rise in income tax rates".

But the new government did not lack ambition.

Labour's 1997 manifesto also included a minimum wage and plans for devolved government in Scotland and Wales.

 

And on the day after their election victory, Gordon Brown surprised everyone by handing control of interest rates to the Bank of England - a move that would have far-reaching consequences for the economy.

Blair was also determined, like many a prime minister before and since, to fix some of the country's longstanding social problems.

One of his top priorities was reform of the UK's social security system to make work pay. He appointed Labour MP Frank Field to "think the unthinkable" on welfare and promptly sacked him when he did just that (although it was Field's falling out with his boss Harriet Harman that probably sealed his fate).

Twenty years on and welfare reform remains a work in progress.

The gap between rich and poor remained more or less the same during the Blair years, according to analysis by the Resolution Foundation, although there was a big increase in pay at the top end of the income scale.

 

Education was Blair's other top priority. He oversaw a big expansion in higher and further education, and poured money into early years learning, as well as pioneering academy schools.

His first term was characterised by caution on tax and public spending, thanks to Labour's commitment to stick to tight Conservative spending limits for the first two years.

That changed after the party's second landslide election victory in 2001, when billions began to pour into the health service and education, on the back of a booming economy. Outcomes improved as a result.

Iraq and immigration

But perhaps the biggest change that happened to Britain during his time in power was never explicitly spelled out in a Labour manifesto.

The UK, Sweden and the Republic of Ireland were the only EU nations not to temporarily restrict the rights of people from eight new member countries, including Poland and the Czech Republic, to live and work in their countries.

Blair's 2004 decision to open the door to East European migration was entirely in keeping with his values as an ardent pro-European, who had championed the eastward expansion of the EU and who believed globalisation and flexible labour markets were the answer to industrial decline.

 

The plentiful supply of cheap labour arguably helped the UK economy to expand without facing the issue of spiralling wages - and this in turn held inflation and interest rates down, contributing to a decade-long boom in property prices, adding to the feelgood factor among middle income home owners, even if fewer people could afford to get on the property ladder in the first place.

But it also sowed the seeds of discontent in Labour's heartlands, as growing numbers felt left behind and marginalised by the pace of change in their communities, and a growing anti-EU feeling began to take hold.

And then there was Iraq.

In 2003, Blair had drawn on every last ounce of his persuasive skill to make the case for joining the US-led invasion to MPs and the wider public.

He had become convinced of the value of military action in pursuit of humanitarian aims and the need to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with the US, in the wake of 11 September, 2001.

But the subsequent failure to find weapons of mass destruction appeared to confirm many people's worst suspicions about him - that he relied too much on spin and was not to be trusted.

It did not prevent him from winning a third term, in 2005, but he was forced to hand over to Gordon Brown earlier than he had wanted, in 2007. Like Mrs Thatcher in 1990, he had won three elections but ended up being forced out by his own side.

 

 

The legacy

                                                                         The Blair family leave Downing Street in 2007

The years that followed were not kind, as the incoming Brown administration, and the Ed Miliband Labour team that followed seemed to do their best to talk down the Blair years - and then there was the Chilcot inquiry into the Iraq war, as well as the ongoing consequences of the invasion, for the region and global security as a whole.

Blair's supporters point to his domestic achievements - the minimum wage and all the new schools, hospitals and Sure Start children's centres that were built during his time in power - and they insist that his reputation will one day recover.

But with Britain on its way out of the European Union, and the Labour Party back in the hands of the left, it seems like much of what Blair stood for has been swept away.

His centrist brand of politics, characterised as the Third Way, a philosophy shared by his friend and political soulmate Bill Clinton, has fallen out of fashion in many Western countries and even Blair's style of politics, with its rigid emphasis on "message discipline", looks antiquated in the more freewheeling age of social media.

And despite winning three general elections, with big majorities, making him Labour's most electorally successful leader, his name has become a dirty word among many current active party members, guaranteed to generate boos and cat calls when it comes up at meetings.

It is very far from the future he must have imagined for himself on that cloudless spring morning in May 1997.

Yet Blair's supporters claim that his vision of a self-consciously modern, multicultural, socially liberal country, has endured - and that David Cameron's six years in government were shaped by it.

It is there in the Conservatives' commitments on foreign aid and promotion of gay rights, they say, as well as Britain's continued commitment to a health service free at the point of delivery, funded by taxation.

And, at 63, the man himself is still in the game.

He has ditched his business interests - that had generated so much negative publicity for him - to work full time on promoting moderate, centrist policy solutions, fighting battles that 20 years ago he must have hoped would have been won by now.

 

 

"Capitalism  Anti Communism! Democracy Anti Totalitarianism(Dictatorship)!

After the capitalist democracy revolution, liberalism(Civil liberties) and Socialist(social rights, Right to life) coexist (respect) is a free society. -Freedom Society[Democratization government]-

*Three principles of capitalism:Private property, pursuit of profit, Principle of free market competition Et

*Three principles of Democracy: government of the people, by the people, for the people Et

 

-블레어와 고든 브라운, 피터 맨덜슨은 흔히 노동당을 영국 정치의 중심으로 이끌었다고 일컬어지며 옛 국유화 정책을 시장 경제로 전환한 그의 정책을 일컬어 "신 노동당(New Labour)"이라 부른다.

그는 자신의 정책을 "현대 사회민주주의"와 "제3의 길"이라 부른다. 정통좌파지향의 비판자들('구 노동당(Old Labour)' 계열의 사람 포함)은 그가 영국 노동당의 기본 이념을 배반했다고 느끼며, 블레어 정부가 소득의 분배 등 전통적인 노동계의 관심에서 벗어나 너무 우편향으로 치우쳤다고 보기도 한다[영국 노동당이나 프랑스 사회당 등이 자본주의민주주의 혁명 이후 사회주의 정책에서 가장 큰 문제점이 국가사회주의 세력 등장과 국유화(국영기업이나 국영농장등)이다. 그런 문제점을 극복하기 위해서는 새로운 이념이 필요하다  그것이 바로 자본주의민주주의 혁명 이후 사회주의 노선(사회민주주의)이다 국영기업에서 민간기업으로 정책전환과 함께 개인의 생존권(사회권) 강화시키고 국민소득을 증가시키는 방법이다 국가사회주의(국영자본체제)를 항시 경계해야 국민의 복지확대와 소득 증가를 가져올 수 있다]

 

 

-신 노동당(New Labour)은 90년대 초 토니 블레어가 주창한 정치적 구호이며 1994년부터 2010년까지 제3의 길을 외치며 자유주의화, 우경화된 새로운 영국 노동당을 가리키는 것이기도 하다.

노동당 내 정파를 가리키는 의미이기도 했다. 토니 블레어 이후, 변화를 추구하며 제3의 길을 표방하는 사람들이 자신들을 신 노동당(New Labour)이라고 부르며, 전통적인 노동계의 가치와 소득 분배 등의 가치를 옹호하는 사람들을 구 노동당(Old Labour)이라고 매도하였다.

1.노선의 변화

영국 노동당은 당 강령에서 사회주의를 폐기하고 그 자리에 사회민주주의를 대신하였다.

이로 인해 전통적 노동계나 구 노동당파들에 의해 많은 비판을 받았으며, 심지어 사회민주주의자들에게도 영국 노동당은 사민주의화가 된게 아니라 리버럴화 되었다고 비판받았다.

구 노동당의 국유화 정책을 폐기하고 마가릿 대처를 비판하면서도 적절했다고 평가하며, 자본주의적인 시장경제를 옹호하였다.

소득의 분배, 사회 정의도 중요하지만 무엇보다 성공할수 있는 희망과 부자가 될 수 있는 길을 열어야 한다고 주장하였다.

사회주의자들이나 사회민주주의자들에 의해 영국 노동당이 영국 보수당과 다를 거없는 중도우파~중도주의 스펙트럼의 신자유주의 정당으로 전락하였다고 비판받았다. 실제로 토니 블레어는 사회적 약자, 하위계층보다는 중산층을 옹호해 표 얻기 위한 포퓰리즘이라고도 비판받았다.

2.쇠퇴와 부활

신 노동당의 정책들은 2010년 이후 여러가지 문제점을 드러내 다시 좌경화되었으나, 2015년 영국 총선에서 패배함으로써 토니 블레어를 비롯한 신 노동당파들이 과거처럼 친기업 중도노선, 부자부터 서민까지 모두 포용하는 빅텐트 제3의 길노선으로 우회해야하다고 주장했으나, 사회주의자들은 오히려 토니 블레어 이후 영국 노동당의 우경화로 인해 영국 노동당은 중산층과 부자들의 지지를 받고 하위계층들에게 외면받았고 많은 하위계층들, 노동자들이 정치에 관심을 멀리해 투표를 하지 않아 이렇게 된 일이라고 토니 블레어의 주장을 반박하였다.

 

-자유사회(민주화 사회)

"민주주의 반대는 공산주의가 아닌 독재주의(전체주의)고 자본주의 반대가 공산주의입니다. 자본주의민주주의 혁명 이후 자유주의(자유권)와 사회주의(사회권=생존권) 공존(존중) 자유사회(민주화 사회)입니다[자본주의민주주의 혁명 이후 자유민주주의와 사회민주주의 연합정부론(공동정부이론)입니다]"
*자본주의 3대 원칙:사유재산, 이윤추구, 자유시장경쟁 등[공산주의는 자본주의 3대 원칙을 부정함으로 자영업을 할 수 없다]
*민주주의 3대 원칙:국민의(民有), 국민에 의한(民治), 국민을 위한(民享) 정부

*국영 기업 [國營企業]

국가가 직접 세워 운영하는 기업[국영 자본체제]

*공기업 [公企業]

국가나 공공 단체의 자본으로 설립하여 운영되는 기업

*사기업 [私企業]

개인 또는 사인(私人)과 같은 민간인이 출자하여 경영하는 기업

공산주의 국가에는 원칙적으로 사기업이 존재할 수가 없다

사기업 [私企業]은 자본주의 경제의 특징적인 기업체제이자 현대 고도산업사회의 핵심적인 구성체로 산업사회의 기반을 이루고 있다

-고도소비사회는 소비가 투자라는 경제원칙이 적용되는 고소득층이 국가 경제 주도층으로 되어 가는 사회이다 21세기에서는 영원한 소유주도 없은 노동자(근로계층)의 세상이다. 선진국에서 노동자(근로계층)의 세금이 국가재정의 대부분을 차지하기 때문에 국가보조금으로 일자리 창출에 노력하고 있다. 기업 소유주의 세금(소득세나 지방세)보다 노동자들(근로계층)의 개인 세금(소득세나 지방세)을 많이 지불하고 있다. [삼성,현대,LG,롯데,GS,한화,SK 등 회사 회장 세금보다 수 만명의 회사 근로자들이 세금을 많이 내고 있다. 기업주의 사회적 공헌과 노력도 이해해야 한다] 기업들의 노동자(근로계층)의 고용 숫자가 많을수록 국가 감면혜택을 주어야 민간경제주도로 국민소득 증가를 가져 올 수 있다

기업이 투자하지 않고 기업이윤만 추구할때 세율을 높이겠다는 정책이다[일자리 창출과 기업 이윤 세율 차등화 혜택]

-고도 소비사회(고소득층)에서는 자본주의민주주의(자유사회)를 발전시킬 수 있는 방법은 자유무역으로 국가간의 경제통합이 필요하다

*극단적 사회주의(국가사회주의-국영기업, 군국주의)
*극단적 자유주의(무정부주의.마약복용,동성애)